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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”